Friday, November 30, 2012

HILLARY 2016?

       
        Now that the 2012 election season has come to a close (besides for defeated Tea Party Representativ Allen West of Florida), the speculation of who will run in four years, begins now. For Republicans, we can speculate that party golden boy, Marco Rubio, who stuck closely to Mr.Romney in his prospects, will take the stage as a possible Republican nominee. But, for Democrats, many are fixated on one person who once ran in 2008, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Although Clinton has turned down all questions about her intentions of running, a simple Google search can show that there is an overwhelming community of people who would love to see her run again, 8 years after her defeat for the Democratic nomination by current President Obama, who will be starting his second term very soon.
When I said overwhelming, I meant it. That is over 70 million results and counting. 
Bill Campaigning for his wife back in 2008.
     Again,  Madame Secretary of State has repeatedly denied claims that she will run in 4 years but, her husband former President Bill Clinton, a man respected across the world, has said that "If she changes her mind and decides to run, I’ll be happy.” but that it is "It’s entirely up to her,” and that “I believe that she’s being absolutely honest with you when she says she doesn’t think she’ll go back into politics. But if she comes home and we do this foundation stuff for the rest of our lives, I’ll be happy; if she changes her mind and decides to run, I’ll be happy.” (source: Politico) Yet although again he is acknowledging that she has said that she will not run, his support of that slight possibility does give off a bit of hope for fans and supporters of his wife. 

      Although all signs point to a big fat "NO" from Hillary in regards to running. Based on items for sale on the internet, you would think that her campaign has already begun with items ranging from bumper stickers to water bottles plastered with the phrase "Hillary 2016". Even the popular clothing chain Urban Outfitters recently featured a "Hillary 2016" shirt on their website, right next to a shirt saying "Barack Yo Body". In summation, it is anything but difficult to find some way to show off to the world who your top pick for the 2016 presidential race is…in 2012. 







From bottom left: 1.Mug from Zazzle 2. T-shirt from Urban Outfitters (now out of stock)
 3. Christmas ornament from Zazzle as well 4. Agenda/Planner which is also from Zazzle. Now it isn't hard to show your support for one of America's favorite leading ladies.

      Speculations began when Mrs.Clinton announced that she would step down from her position after one term as Secretary of State. Since then I'm sure it has been the elephant in the room whenever she has been in a professional setting. We wont know for a while whether the former first lady will take a second attempt at becoming the first female president of the United States of America, but until then, avid Hillary fans like myself (I saw her actually speak when she came down to South Florida when she was running in 2008) can just hope and pray that our wishes be granted. 

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Gallup Organization (ch 11)



Truman holding the infamous misprinted newspaper that reported that he was beat by John Dewey, when in actuality, Truman bet Dewey. This win was miscalculated by many pollsters including the famous Gallup, who has been pretty accurate ever since.

      When watching the news, in one sitting you can catch at least one poll being flashed across the screen regarding some current event issue, whether it be middle class opinions on tax cuts for the wealthy, or even more relevant to recent current events, which presidential candidate do people find better fit to win? Most of these polls are conducted by one of the most famous polling organizations, the Gallup Organization. 


  Initially founded as the American Institute of Public Opinion in 1935, it was the correctly predicted 1936 win of FDR over Alfred Landon that set the name Gallup in our minds with any associations of polling.  Up until Gallup, Literary Digest, a popular magazine, was the leader in national presidential polling through their use of the straw poll. In that same 1936 election,
Literary Digest predicted opposite of Gallup, and they predicted incorrectly, which shed light on the flaws of the polling methods of Literary Digest. This all paved the way for the Gallup Organization to reach to the top. 
      Since their mishap, the Gallup organization has since consistently predicted the winners of the presidential popular vote successfully. The organization now conducts public opinion polls in over 160 countries. Results of these polls are not only used for various mediums of news, but are also published on the Gallup website for all to see. Since the beginning, Gallup refused to work for partisan organizations or paid for by special interest groups, a mantra that the organization still continues to live by, in order to deliver guaranteed non-bias results. 
     Based on information given on the Gallup website (see direct link above), the organization prides itself on being completely scientific. Their methods include surveying and interviewing approximately 1,000 residents per country. According to them, "
Gallup uses telephone surveys in countries where telephone coverage represents at least 80% of the population. Where telephone penetration is less than 80%, Gallup uses face-to-face interviewing.", which ensures that they can get the best representative sample. They ask everything from over 100 global questions to inquiries about things that are region specific. To ensure accuracy, in areas with large populations such as a city, Gallup will oversample a group of 2,000 and in rare instances the sample is between 500 and 1,000. 
     In order to find their households, first Gallup selects PSU's (Primary Sampling Units) and are proportional to probabilities of population size and are stratified by clustering. The second step is to select households through random route procedures or if by telephone using RDD (Random Digit Dialing). Lastly through face-to-face or telephone methods, they select their respondents.
    How accurate are these polls? Well, the organization gives itself a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error of 
±3. Historically, these polls have served as an accurate representation of the population's opinions, as seen below in Gallup's United States presidential election predictions.
    Although the Gallup organization has established its credibility in almost a century of work, many people will often try to argue that the Gallup polls are bias. Arguments like these come up especially if the poll is indicating a result that is opposite of what the said critique is fighting for. Arguments like this were prevalent in the past election among conservatives who argued against the predictions that Barack Obama was going to get re-elected against hopeful Republican Willard "Mitt" Romney. Top conservative media leaders such as Rush Limbaugh made comments concerning this, as can be seen in the below video.

FAST FORWARD TO ABOUT 00:34 SECONDS

   Though many have tried to discredit the organization, Gallup continues to prove the doubters wrong, including Rush Limbaugh, who was faced with a win by President Obama, and the embarrassment of trying to discredit an organization which has more credibility than he himself does. 

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

My Favorite International Leading Lady


         Bonjour! Because I decided to focus on how women are progressing in the political sphere as a part of my post-election blogs. But, since it does fit in with the theme of my blogs, I decided to speak a little about the politically involved woman who I aspire to be….

Valérie Trierweiler, THE FABULOUS PARTNER OF THE PRESIDENT OF FRANCE, François Hollande!!!!!

     Okay so it may be random that I aspire to at least be half the woman that Ms. Trierweiler is now, one day, but the connection for me lies from the inspiration she gives off. Beautiful and intelligent(recieved a degree in political science), Trierweiler is a major international figure. Although her boyfriend (a President just having a girlfriend is just uncommon and unusual nowadays in America) is the PRESIDENT OF FRANCE, Ms. Trierweiler continues to a strong journalist, a political journalist , even with a position in which many serve as a conflict of interest. 



    Without even saying more, it shows how this political figure is truly an independent woman who regardless of her status, continues to pursue her true love, her career. Ms. Trierweiler could have given up the poorly paid and gritty life of a journalist in a heartbeat the second her lover became President, but she didn't. If this woman isn't the best example of a feminist….(Sorry Rosie the Riveter) 
      
      And although some may see her as a home wrecker and has been called many atrocities, even looked upon as one of the least popular first ladies of recent French history, but I see her as the face of the new modern woman. 



     While Trierweiler herself is quite the woman, the pairing between herself and Hollande is a match made in scholastic heaven. Since Hollande has taken office, the Socialist President has made many progressive and positive changes. One of the highlights of his presidency has included giving his support for same-sex marriage and adoptions additionally he has fought hard in the controversial battle to lower the retirement age. 

     While the pair is still young and fresh in their positions, we can only wait to see what kind of future this power political couple will be poised for in the future!



     


Sunday, November 18, 2012

Race and Ethnicity (from Ch 11)

        An excerpt from Chapter 11 looks at the broad topic of Public opinion and political socialization, but in more specific terms in relation to how demographic characteristics form our opinions, and even more specifically and relevant to recent current events, how race and ethnicity form our opinions.
    
      Most recently, we can remember the re-election of our not-so-young anymore former senator from Illinois, President Obama. But there is no nook and cranny that you can hide in as an American without hearing from at least one person, "oh he just won because he's black and black people voted for him bleh bleh bleh". Although these statements are quite ignorant, there is some validity when it comes to how our race and ethnicity form our opinions.
    
       The textbook states the ironically textbook example that historically, "black children have had less positive views of the president than white children", but that "the election of Barack Obama to the presidency should produce dramatic changes in these views".  As we grow up around people of the same heritage and ethnicity as us, it is not surprising that we would unconsciously feel more comfortable with people who look more like "us", or the people that they are used to. Considering this, it could be plausible that an African American would prefer to vote for President Obama because he may be more relatable to them, but it should in no case be used as a derogatory remark as it is often thrown around as.
    
    
      Beyond race, a person's heritage and ethnic background can play a huge role because different issues can be relevant to different groups of people. Such as in the case that something that is a "hot-button" issue for an African American, may not be relevant to a Hispanic person. Often polls see that Hispanics often favor government sponsored health insurance and bilingual education in addition to liberalized immigration policies, some issues that a Caucasian person may vote differently on.

A whooooole new blog


       So now that the election is over, my blogs that were focused on elections unfortunately no longer hold any relevance. But with bittersweet endings come new beginnings and with new beginnings it is time for me to reference Aladdin and say that this is now a whole new blog (a whole new world…get it?). What topic will I obsess over next? The world may never know… except they will have to, since I am forced to continue writing these blogs for my AP Government class (shout out to Tanner hey hey). ….But in all seriousness, I feel as if I am now at a loss for words, literally. I have so many political passions but it seems almost impossible to get myself to just focus in on one. But, after much deliberation, it seems as if it is true, I have to move on from the election and now move on to bigger and better political posts!

So what am I really passionate about?

Politically, something that I have always been passionate has been the progression of women in the professional and political atmosphere. This past election brought to us a record amount of female faces in high political posts. The 113th Congress will have at least 20 female senators, which is the most ever. The House of Representatives with at least 77 female representatives which also led them to break records!

Another woman that we can commend after the past election year is the first openly LESBIAN Senator in United States history, Tammy Baldwin (D) from Wisconsin. Tammy formerly served in the House of Representatives for fourteen years, which also in turn gave her the highest seniority in her entering class of Senators.

Mazie Hirano has also become a milestone member by becoming the first Asian-American woman to serve in the senate!

While the state of New Hampshire became the first state to elect an all female delegation with the election of Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) and Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Ann McLane Kuster (D) to join the Senate incumbents, Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Kelly Ayotte ®.


While in this past election, women's rights were a large topic of debate, it seems that all of these women are happy and that they are following their political dreams!


Friday, November 9, 2012

Veto Power

        Ahhh the ever famous presidential veto. Technically speaking, the power to veto is the formal, constitutional authority of the president to reject bills passed by both houses of Congress, thus preventing them from becoming law without further congressional action.
       The power to veto is one of the President's most elite powers that he is given in his position. It is something he (or she, you never know, one day) can use to threaten congress in order to prompt members to rework legislation to the President's liking. Even if they don't veto, just the very threat of a veto can send chills down the spines of the members of Congress. It is amazing what you can tell about a President's term based on the amount of times he uses a veto. Some veto once or twice in their terms, others such as the historic Franklin Delano Roosevelt, used his veto power 635 times!
        Although a veto gives a President further power outside his typical duties, a veto can be overridden by Congress. This can be done with 2/3 majority in each house to override the Executive veto. But, due to party ties and divides,  Congress cannot often get enough votes to override an executive veto. It is so rare that in over 200 years, there have been over 2,500 total presidential vetoes and only about maybe a hundred have been successfully overridden. The President with the most overridden vetoes in history is Andrew Johnson, who was impeached.
     Some recent overridden vetoes occurred during the Bush Presidency which included the Water Resources Development Act of 2007 which was overridden by the House with a whopping 361-54 vote, while only 277 were needed and in the Senate with a landslide of 79-14 with 62 votes needed. This law reauthorized the Water Resources Development Act and authorized flood control, navigation, and environmental projects and studies by the US Army Corps of Engineers. It also proves that vetoes are possible to override, just hard to override.
      In this specific case, Bush cited as his reasons for killing the bill as followed,


"This bill lacks fiscal discipline. I fully support funding for water resources projects that will yield high economic 
and environmental returns to the Nation and each year my budget has proposed reasonable and responsible funding, including $4.9 billion for 2008, 
to support the Army Corps of Engineers' (Corps) main missions. However, this authorization bill makes promises to local communities that the Congress does not have a track record of keeping. The House of Representatives took a $15 billion bill into negotiations with a $14 billion bill from the Senate and instead of splitting the difference, emerged with a Washington compromise that costs over $23 billion. This is not fiscally responsible, particularly when local communities have been waiting for funding for projects already in the pipeline. The bill's excessive authorization for over 900 projects and programs exacerbates the massive backlog of ongoing Corps construction projects, which will require an additional $38 billion in future appropriations to complete.

This bill does not set priorities. The authorization and funding of Federal water resources projects should be focused on those projects with the greatest merit that are also a Federal responsibility. My Administration has repeatedly urged the Congress to authorize only those projects and programs that provide a high return on investment and are within the three main missions of the Corps' civil works program: facilitating commercial navigation, reducing the risk of damage from floods and storms, and restoring aquatic ecosystems. This bill does not achieve that goal. This bill promises hundreds of earmarks and hinders the Corps' ability to fulfill the Nation's critical water resources needs -- including hurricane protection for greater New Orleans, flood damage reduction for Sacramento, and restoration of the Everglades while diverting resources from the significant investments needed to maintain existing Federal water infrastructure. American taxpayers should not be asked to support a pork-barrel system of Federal authorization and funding where a project's merit is an afterthought."

        

But luckily, through the power of democracy and checks and balances, this bill and many others like it have been saved and will continue to get saved regardless of the firm Presidential veto.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

LAST DAY OF CANVASSING / ELECTION DAY!


So after months and months of me Fan-Girling ((noun/informal):a female fan, especially one who is obsessive about comics, film, music, or science fiction))President Obama, today is THE day. 

What day is today you ask? Election day! Not only is today election day, it is my first time ever ever ever voting! I decided to edit this blog throughout the day since it is special, it is the last of my election themed blogs. Which means that after this blog, I will be passionately blogging about something else. 

BUTTTTTTTTTT, Until then, today I will live-blog my busy busy first ever election day off my glorious iPhone…..until I find out the final results!

7:00 AM Woke up early in order to get ready to go to the polls

7:30 AM Started my blog for the day






7:45 AM
Decided to walk to my polling location, to you know, fight childhood obesity and whatnot…the way Michelle Obama would want me to. You know me, always supporting my favorite first family!













8:03 AM Realized that I brought my Voter's card, but not my photo ID, although strict photo ID legislation was considered in Florida in 2012, it wasn't enacted like it was in other states. But still… time to return back to the house just to be safe. Still can't believe I did this….. ugh face palm moment.





8:32 AM Finally back to the polls, have everything in hand… time to get in line to vote!

8:49 AM ……Still Waiting

9:05 AM ……..This line seems to be going nowhere

9:07 AM Just overheard the people in front of me talking about how there is a problem "that there is a   black man in the white house"….why do people like this even exist

9:08 AM The annoying people in front of me just confirmed that they are voting for Romney aka R-Money bags….why is this line taking so long

9:20 AM So close yet so far to the front of the line!!!

9:23 AM They just called my precinct to go and skip the line…omg is this real life or fantasy… I'm not        even questioning this… O M G so happy right now 



9:28 AM Just got cheered on for being a first time voter!

9:40 AM JUST VOTEDDDDDDDD aye! So happy! Thank goodness I had read my sample ballot before I came because that thing was like TWELVE pages! Again, so happy I got to use my duty as a citizen of the United States exercise my right to vote! 

9:50 AM Got a ride home from my mom, getting too hot to walk… and I have to do last minute canvassing soon…oh boy, the things I do in hopes of getting my President re-elected. But yay put my "My Vote Counted!" sticker on my laptop! (as shown to the left)

10:30 AM Just got a call from my Field Organizer for the Obama campaign, there is a huge group of people going to get flyers to hand out to supporters to remind them to vote today and the Obama way. It is amazing how canvassing started out with a huge group of people in a neighborhood, but the list began to shrink as we began to seed out the supporters, even persuade people to vote our way! The fact that the end of my journey (from a 17 year old political enthusiast, to an intern,to a community organizer, to a part of a family that will be going our separate ways after this, to a part of something even bigger than myself or anyone I know) is coming near is simply put, bittersweet.

12:30 PM Just arrived at one of my Field Organizer's homes. The driveway is covered with balloons and Obama Biden lawn signs all over.

12:32 PM Just got offered cookies…yes

1:00 PM After going through the hectic storm of last minute stress in the home, we are finally off to canvass and rally our supporters, one last time, this is the home stretch. 

1:12 PM Of course the maps are completely off for the houses, even when we've been doing this for months, of course silly mistakes are bound to happen. 

1:20 PM The groups have split up and I have set foot on the concrete that will be the death of me to walk. But, I have a festive Uncle Sam hat on and star-shaped red white and blue sunglasses, so it can't be too bad.

1:31 PM So hot…..THAT BAD

1:40 PM Pleasant to hear from neighbors as I knock around telling me that they already voted for the President, such proactive supporters! 






2:15 PM LAST FLYER GIVEN OUT…. I am now retired from campaign life. Although my sleep schedule is going to benefit, this is sad to leave behind. I'll know in a few hours if it was all worth it. I'll stop live-tweeting for a little bit, just because the rest of my day will be pretty irrelivant until polls start closing around the U.S. After that, CNN will be my bff for the rest of the night!








My quick ode to Spongebob Squarepants 


7:00 PM THE POLLS HAVE CLOSED IN FLORIDA AND NOW THE NUMBERS WILL START ROLLING IN FROM ALL OVER THE UNITED STATES! 

7:45 PM The exit pools are proving Obama to be quite popular among latino voters, this is very surprising as he is a Democrat. Does this signify a shifting view in the voters of America?




8:30 PM
Unfortunately CNN is projecting that Republicans will continue to have a house majority. Hopefully even with this majority we will be able to get things done, unlike the past session! 







10:00 PM They keep saying Florida is going to be too close to call! Are you serious Florida? Twelve years later and we STILL can't get our act together? I even tried to change the channel from CNN out of anger and Brian Williams is on NBC saying the same thing. O K FLORIDA O K





10:09 PM At least they're showing South Florida as very blue… I may not be happy with my state but my region of Sunny South Florida is making me happy! 




11:40 PM Although Florida is still being counted…IT'S OVER R-MONEY, MY INSPIRATION, 
PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS BEEN RE-ELECTED!!
FOUR MORE YEARS BABY!
It's crazy to know that even if Florida hasn't been counted, to know that I helped make this happen! What is more insane is that we never pictured a scenario where Obama won without Florida AND IT HAPPENED! Literally there are tears in my eyes and I am so happy with everything right now!!!!

P.S. I know this screenshot is before he won, but it's the best one I could get as quick as possible!



Now the clock is done ticking and I shall watch Obama's acceptance speech. Still speechless and so happy that I can look back and say that I was instrumental in helping the President win… even if Florida still hasn't been counted yet *sigh* . But I cannot wait to see what this glorious man will do in the next four years! Hope you enjoyed the election updates from my first ever election! This whole election year has been an experience and I wouldn't trade it for anything in the world!
<3